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Applying technology foresight to inform 2028-2034 Smart specialisation strategy

9 September 2024 - 28 February 2025

Problem

As part of a broader EU strategy to drive innovation-based economic growth, Lithuania adopted the Smart Specialisation implementation (S3) framework, which encourages member states to leverage their competitive advantages for enhanced economic competitiveness and growth. This policy aims to foster shared prosperity, strategic growth and sustainable development across the region while also addressing pressing social and economic challenges. 

Lithuania’s current Smart Specialisation (S3) strategy has been successful in reinforcing its competitive strengths in sectors such as biotechnology, ICT, and advanced manufacturing. However, the strategy has been primarily focused on leveraging existing capabilities and infrastructure, which limits the country’s ability to proactively adapt to fast-moving technological shifts. This has been especially true in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and renewable energy storage.  

Without proactive foresight mechanisms in its S3 planning, Lithuania risks missing out on key opportunities for growth. Priority areas for S3 are set in 7-year cycles to align with EU mandates. As the next cycle, (2028-2034) approaches, the integration of technology foresight in S3 planning offers a way to address these gaps and sustain long-term competitiveness and regional equity.  

S3 overview

S3 is a policy framework introduced by the European Commission aimed at promoting regional innovation and economic transformation by identifying the unique competitive advantages of member states. Each member state (with approval from the European Commission), decides its S3 focus areas and implementation. In Lithuania, S3 planning is undertaken by the Ministry of Economy and Innovation. It emphasizes a bottom-up approach, involving stakeholders from government, academia, industry, and civil society in developing research and innovation strategies that leverage preexisting regional strengths. 

The current S3 framework (2021-2027) identified three key priority areas: (1) biotechnology, (2) ICT, and (3) Advanced manufacturing in Lithuania. These domains were chosen based on Lithuania’s existing strengths and infrastructure as well as through stakeholder feedback with industry, academia, government, and civil society. Finally, these focus areas were chosen to align with EU priorities including digital infrastructure, green innovation and sustainability.  

Moreover, within each specific area, broad thematic subfields were identified. While focus areas have been refined since the previous cycle, they still remain broad. This limits Lithuania’s ability to proactively react to technological changes and leverage opportunities for growth.

First, the current process for identifying S3 focuses has limited emphasis on emerging technologies and changes. While the current S3 strategies leverage existing strengths, there is limited integration of foresight mechanisms to identify disruptive or emergent technologies that could shape the future economic landscape. Moreover, Lithuania has been slow to adopt frontier technologies: the country has shown less progress in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced biotechnologies, which could become critical in future global value chains.  

The integration of technology foresight into Lithuania’s S3 strategy for 2028-2034 has the potential to foster fast sustainable growth, accelerate innovation, and build a robust, future-oriented economic framework. By anticipating technological trends and incorporating them into its planning, Lithuania can position itself at the forefront of innovation in Europe while addressing societal challenges such as sustainability, demographic shifts, regional disparities, and global competitiveness.

Goal

The aim of this project is to provide guidelines and recommendations for using technology foresight to inform Lithuania’s S3 planning in the 2028-2034 cycle. The guidelines will focus on incorporating anticipatory thinking and future-oriented planning that align with Lithuania’s long-term economic and innovation goals.